NUS survey: 82% expect no broad HDB resale price surge

Four in five property-sector respondents expect HDB resale prices to soften, moderate or recover only modestly after the 15-month wait-out period was lifted. That is the clearest finding from a survey by the National University of Singapore’s Institute of Real Estate and Urban Studies (IREUS).

Why does that matter? The rule change allows a defined group of private-home owners and former owners to buy an HDB resale flat sooner. Yet the surveyed professionals largely expect that returning demand to enter a calmer market with more flats becoming eligible for resale—not set off another islandwide rush.

The survey found restraint, not exuberance

The respondents divided neatly into two large groups. 41% expected resale prices to moderate or soften, while another 41% expected a modest recovery of less than 1% per quarter in 2026. Combined, that makes the headline figure of 82%.

These are the views of senior property-sector executives, not a poll of HDB buyers and sellers. The accessible survey coverage also does not disclose the sample size, fieldwork dates or complete questionnaire, so its findings are best read as industry sentiment rather than a price forecast.

Still, the split is revealing. The rule’s removal might sound like a large new pool of buyers has been released overnight. In practice, eligibility remains narrower, and the wider resale market entered the change after prices had already edged down for two consecutive quarters.

Separate market analysis published soon after the rule change reached a similar broad view: extra demand could be absorbed by moderating prices, a larger supply of flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period and alternatives such as Build-to-Order flats. Larger resale homes were considered more likely than the overall market to feel additional demand.

Who can now buy without waiting 15 months

HDB removed the 15-month wait-out period with immediate effect on 27 July 2026. It applies to private-property owners and former owners buying a non-subsidised HDB resale flat without an HDB housing loan.

“Non-subsidised” here means an ordinary resale purchase without a housing grant. This is chiefly a restored route for households moving from private property into the HDB resale market using bank financing or paying without a loan.

A current private-property owner does not get to keep both homes indefinitely. After completing the HDB resale purchase, the buyer must dispose of every private residential property owned in Singapore or overseas within six months.

Other purchase routes remain subject to a 30-month wait-out period after the private property is sold. These include buying a subsidised new or resale flat, purchasing an executive condominium directly from a developer, and taking an HDB housing loan.

So the change has not reopened every HDB option to every private-home owner. It removes one temporary barrier for buyers entering a particular part of the resale market under particular financing conditions.

More flats are reaching their resale milestone

The supply backdrop helps explain the measured survey response. HDB flats generally must complete a Minimum Occupation Period, commonly called the MOP, before their owners can sell them on the open market.

About 13,500 flats are expected to reach MOP in 2026, compared with 8,000 in 2025. That is an increase of roughly 69%, based on HDB’s figures. The pipeline is expected to rise further to 15,000 flats in 2027 and 19,500 in 2028.

Not every newly eligible owner will sell, of course. But the figures show that substantially more households will at least gain that option, potentially giving buyers a wider selection than last year.

HDB also cited the direction of recent prices when removing the restriction. Its resale price index fell 0.1% in the first quarter of 2026 and 0.3% in the second quarter, following five quarters of slower growth or no growth from the fourth quarter of 2024 through the fourth quarter of 2025.

The rule itself was introduced on 30 September 2022, when private residential property owners generally had to sell and then wait 15 months before buying a non-subsidised resale flat. Its removal therefore restores an earlier path rather than creating a completely new class of buyer.

Suburban larger flats could see more interest

An orderly overall market does not mean demand will be evenly distributed. The IREUS survey found respondents expected the strongest demand and transaction-volume effect in the Outside Central Region—the broad planning category covering Singapore’s suburban areas.

55% expected demand to be spread across suburban four- and five-room flats. Nearly a quarter expected it to focus instead on larger, older flat types such as executive apartments, maisonettes and jumbo flats.

That pattern makes intuitive sense for some right-sizers. A household leaving a private home may still want several bedrooms, generous living space or a familiar suburban neighbourhood. Larger flats are also relatively scarce compared with standard flat types, so an increase in interested buyers may be felt more clearly there.

For now, however, that remains an expectation rather than a recorded post-change outcome. The useful takeaway from the survey is narrower: most respondents do not foresee a broad price surge, even though selected larger flats and suburban estates may attract more attention.

The next evidence will come from actual resale transactions after the July change. Those numbers will show whether returning private-home owners spread their purchases across the market—as most respondents expect—or cluster around the roomier flats that cannot quickly be replaced.